Idiosyncratic error

before I dive into today’s random thought, work/life topic, highlight of yesterday:

• Husband and I went on a lunch date. It was less than an hour, at a restaurant near by office, Thai food, casual/aimless chat. It was great to sit down without rushing to enjoy a meal together in an unfamiliar place. We plan to do it maybe 1-2 times a month.
• I am very sleepy and low energy this week, my peak week of the training, probably relative to PMS. Hope I gather the energy for this weekend runs.
• Friday is no school day, professional development. Have no plans for tomorrow but to rest and recover.

Idiosyncratic error. It is the part that we cannot explain by the known variables. I am researching about how countries escape middle income trap. We, economists, think we know what are the important elements, but actually the more I read the less I am sure about it. Yes, countries need good starting condition, good basic infrastructure, good education, good government policies, not having too many natural disasters, etc. Yet, none of these alone or even a couple of them can guarantee success. There are always counter examples of countries that didn’t have that or had that but did succeed or did not. This makes the task of coming up with certain recommendations very hard.

Then in life it seems to be the same thing. Many life course changes are usually not planned, triggered by an external factor, and yet, led to success (however one defines it). It doesn’t mean we should not work hard, it’s just working hard is not enough. In my personal experience, many big life decisions came out of my direct control. For example, choosing economics as subject for college was almost 90% because of a great teacher I had in high college. Choosing the college I went to study economics was 100% due to my best friend (I didn’t even know about the college she was recommending). Going to the US for PhD was 90% because of my college advisor told me (follow what interests you, not what you think can guarantee a good job). Even landing to my current job, which I love, is still a mystery to me. And examples can go on and on.

I guess what I mean is that if we are too focused on the goals, and not enjoy the process, we might end up frustrated for life as we may never get to the goal. And for countries to escape the middle income trap it requires good foundations, stability, sensible policies, and some luck. So maybe instead of aiming for the year the country becomes high income, we should focus on incremental improvement of average citizen of the country.