Last week I attended a workshop on the impact of AI on innovation, from the perspective of economists. I found it super interesting, and first time that I feel hopeful about what AI can bring.
- How we think about AI depends on how we incorporate it in the Solow’s model. If we believe it enters through K (capital) and L (labor), we enter into the catastrophic world, AI taking over all jobs. If AI enters as A (productivity) shock, then the economy grows because productivity growth makes the use of K and L more efficient, so we are better off. Brilliant way to frame AI into classic growth model.
- The closest experience of such big technological shock is the invention of energy. The factory had to be redesigned and workers reskilled to use it. Same jobs as we know today may no longer exist in the future but new type of jobs will emerge because we as human will demand more quality life. Just imagine doctors who were trained to fix infections, now more doctors will dedicate to lifespan prevention.
- AI can process information but has no judgement. Humans are still needed to judge what information is relevant for what particular angle and approach. Human will make ethical decisions.
- For parents, to support kids development and be ready for future job market, foundational skills are more important than those that require memorization and repetition. Yet, without knowing the basic, one cannot judge nor to innovate.
- My only remaining question are human social animal? Do we prefer human interaction despite its perfection over interaction with perfect machines? Answering this question will shape up future of jobs, and whether all jobs can be replaced by robots.
First day back to office, busy as expected, yet I had lunch with the team, corridor chat, because I am definitely social animal 🙂
Our New Journey 
I’m actually full on board with what AI can bring, the scary part is the amount of energy AI eats.
Our Amazon distribution centres here are going all in AI, but, does our electrical grid have the power that will require? Amazon asked for permission to build a wind farm a few years ago with I think this in mind, but our government said no!…This does not look good
LikeLike
I am an AI skeptic. There have been some studies of AI making investment decisions and they chose poorly. Perhaps LLMs can be trained to think like humans, especially about quantitative aspects. A lot of our PM decisions start with quantitative assumptions/info but then you need human input to vet those assumptions. I also really don’t want my kids to have access to AI. Kids will find way to cheat and they are only cheating themselves in the long run!
LikeLike
Like Warren, I worry a lot about the energy use required. We are destroying our planet (our only home) with how much energy we use already. This may be a solvable problem as renewable energy usage increases, but AI is coming much faster.
I also worry about jobs going away. Yes, new jobs will be created, but will the people who did the old jobs be able to support themselves, or be pushed the side for new jobs? Capitalism is harsh in this respect (in most respects).
I like learning of how it can help with diagnosing diseases and so on, though.
LikeLike
I am an AI sceptic at this point. We’re asked at work to use it for “efficiency” but honestly, a lot of the things that AI spits our are not factually correct and it’s not really a time-saver at this point. I also fear about critical thinking skills that still need to be taught…. will that happen in schools/colleges?
I am hoping that there will be a careful, policed, guided approach… right now it’s just used willynilly IMHO.
LikeLike
Great topic, Coco!
I was just chatting with a student studying Data Science and AI. She mentioned that what we have now is still “narrow AI,” impressive but limited to specific tasks.
AGI, the kind that could actually think and learn across domains, is still just a concept, but when it arrives, it will raise huge questions about control and ethics.
She said it scares her, and honestly, same here. Add Warren and J’s points about energy use and San’s about critical thinking, and I can’t help being a bit sceptical, even though I liked your take on the potential economic upside.
LikeLike
I’m a little worried about AI and the dumbing down of people who use it–especially students. I do use it at work on occasion and am amazed at how seamlessly it helps gather information. I guess we’ll have to see how things roll out.
LikeLike
I truly don’t know enough about it, but what I do know is- AI is here to stay and we might as well embrace it. There are going to be things that AI does very, very well. I think there will be big improvements in the medical field (like much earlier detection of diseases) due to AI, and that’s a great thing. The not-so-great things will be weeded out over time.
LikeLike
This sounds like a fascinating workshop, and I appreciate your takeaways! I don’t know enough about AI to feel anything but deeply nervous about its environmental and economic implications, so I’m glad to read that you are feeling some optimism.
LikeLike